Seasonal Tendencies
A seasonality terminal built around the three US benchmarks, with the full SPDR sector suite, emerging markets and OMX 30 available for comparison. Every calendar year since 1992 is rebased to zero on January 1 and averaged into one typical path — then this year's tape is laid on top, so you can see whether the market is tracking, leading or fighting its own historical rhythm.
S&P 500 · intra-year path
1992–2025 average vs 2026Month by month
2026 overlay · average return · share of years positive · 34 years| Month | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | +1.2% | -1.4% | -5.1% | +9.6% | +4.8% | -1.3% | +0.1% | +2.1% | — | — | — | — |
| Avg return | +0.3% | -0.6% | +0.7% | +1.5% | +0.6% | +0.2% | +1.0% | -0.2% | -0.6% | +1.4% | +2.0% | +1.0% |
| Positive | 62% | 53% | 65% | 68% | 62% | 50% | 62% | 56% | 56% | 65% | 68% | 74% |
What moves S&P 500 through the year
Why seasonality matters. A seasonal pattern is never the cause — it is the residue of drivers that repeat: buyback windows opening and closing, tax-loss selling and its January reversal, fund fiscal year-ends, dividend and reinvestment dates, earnings calendars, restocking and build seasons. The average path only repeats in a given year if those same drivers actually show up. When the buyback window is open, revisions are rising and flows are positive, the seasonal tailwind tends to land. When the driver is absent or reversed, the pattern fails — and the failure itself is information.
How to read the chart. The grey line is the typical year. The green line is now. When this year runs above the grey path, the tape is stronger than its own base rate; when it runs below, something idiosyncratic is weighing on it. The distance between the two lines is the interesting part — not the direction of either one alone.
How we use it. As context, never as a signal. Read the window, then verify its driver is present this year; a tailwind with a live driver is worth waiting for, a tailwind without one is a coin flip. Price trend and the fundamentals still decide what you own — seasonality only decides how patient you should be about the entry.