Leadership is where macro tailwinds meet meso rotation. When liquidity, real rates or growth impulses favour long-duration assets, capital does not spread evenly — it flows into regions, sectors and styles positioned for that regime. The models surface the assets already receiving that tailwind: countries and broad markets through persistent relative strength against ACWI, and individual stocks through trend quality and relative strength confirmed by volume. A true leader is rarely a single factor; it is the point where macro conditions, sector-level flow and a stock's own momentum overlap.
Leading Markets →Leadership does not come from nowhere.
Every market or stock that appears in the rankings got there because capital moved. The exception is the Valuation model: it ranks assets with strong micro fundamentals where macro and meso sentiment has not yet priced them in. Capital moves in response to three layers of the economy — macro, meso and micro economics. Changes in these elements — rate shifts, commodity prices, regulation or sentiment — give tailwind to different assets, markets and stocks, and that tailwind is what creates leaders.
The study of economy-wide phenomena — growth, interest rates, inflation, liquidity and employment — that shape aggregate demand for risky assets.
- Real rates
- Liquidity
- Growth impulse
- Currency
The layer between macro and micro: how capital rotates across sectors, styles, industries and asset classes within the same broad economic regime.
- Sector rotation
- Style & factor
- Breadth
- Industry cycle
The study of individual companies — cash flows, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength and valuation — that determines whether a trend can be owned at a price.
- Cash flow
- ROIC / ROE
- Implied expectations
- Insider action
From economics to signal
The models do not predict the economic cycle, but they rank what the macro, meso and micro layers have already produced and which assets are getting tailwind, using fixed rules and fixed refresh schedules.
Mispricing is a gap between micro strength and market sentiment. The Valuation model looks for companies with solid cash flow, returns on capital and growth where the price has not yet caught up — either because the sector is out of favour, the macro story is still forming, or sentiment simply overlooked the name. It blends value, quality and growth, then penalises broken fundamentals, shrinking cash flow and signs that the mispricing has already closed. The best opportunities usually come from strong micros meeting a temporary macro or meso headwind.
Valuation Screener →Some assets move in repeating calendar structures with an economic root. Seasonality scans multi-year history for windows where a market or stock has produced positive returns with consistency, then ranks them by return magnitude and hit rate. These windows are not random — they often coincide with recurring economic events such as earnings seasons, tax inflows, pension rebalancing, harvest cycles, energy-demand seasons and year-end positioning. Macro liquidity sets whether the window matters, meso flow decides which sectors catch it, and micro fundamentals decide whether a specific stock can hold the move.
Seasonal Tendencies →Probabilities, not predictions.
Regimes break. A policy shock can invert the macro layer in a single session. Relative strength built over a quarter can be erased in a week.
Signals overlap. Leadership and mispricing frequently disagree. The disagreement is information — it is where position sizing, not conviction, does the work.
Nothing here is advice. The models rank data under fixed rules. How that becomes a portfolio is a decision left to the reader.